About this time we see a flurry of top ten predictions about social media. Some are legit but most are simply predictions made by those who are experts on social media – both kinds, Twitter and Facebook.* I have lots of predictions about social media and 2011 and I might share some of them later but right now I want to share my top forteen predictions about most top ten predictions about social media in 2011. To add credibility to my top ten list I am adding percentages…
87% of predictions will be made by “social media gurus” and by gurus I mean someone who had or has a career in a field not related to strategic communications but has a computer and an ounce of technical ability to create a twitter account, Facebook page and blog.
98.37% Won’t review their predictions from 2009 (Please note, I carried my prediction percentage to the second decimal which gives it more credibility) for a variety of reasons but most of all because of their ridiculousness.
74% of PR/Marcom/Adv firms, etc. prediction blog posts will be written by someone other than the person who wrote their 2010 predictions because that person is no longer there.
100% of PR/Marcom/Adv firms who made predictions last year but don’t make predictions this year won’t do so because the person who wrote their predictions last year is no longer there and they didn’t hire a replacement.
98.2 % of all top ten social media predictions blog posts will get less than 100 unique visits per site.
100% of those who got 100 unique visits will consider that a successful blog post.
96% will include some overused social media term about people
97% will include the term revolutionary. Please note, this is a 3% decrease from last year since word is getting around that all these platforms and tools are truly revolutionary.
89% will talk about social media the same way a football player dances in the end zone after scoring a touchdown… for the first time.
57% will predict that Facebook is the new Google, 57% will predict that Google’s new social effort will dominate Facebook and 14% will somehow predict both.
142.3% of social media predications will illustrate by example that the person making the predictions fundamentally doesn’t understand mathematics in general and percentages in particular
87% will make a prediction with worldwide implications based on a random sampling of 1 (themselves) or something they read on twitter.
0% of the social media predictions will reference Subservient Chicken, Skittles, or that stupid Spy Twitter game… whatever it was called. 23% will reference the Old Spice Guy and whatever Old Spice product he was promoting.
92% of predictions won’t really be predictions at all but simply the observation that evolution is alive and well in the field of communications as predicted by true experts in the communications industry back in the 1940′s and earlier in some cases.
There you have it and if you have a prediction about the 2011 social media predictions please post them below. I will mark my calendar for December, 2011 to see how we did.
*I stole that line from @mattgalloway who also contributed to this post – mainly the stuff you didn’t like. Everything else is mine.